Kevin Brierton: Inside Lending – Week of 3-13-23

NATIONAL MARKET UPDATE

Home building data firm Zonda revealed most builders saw a strong start to the year. Their New Home Pending Sales Index (PSI) reported a nonseasonally adjusted 4.3% uptick in demand in January.

Fannie Mae’s February Home Purchase Sentiment Index found most consumers still think it’s a good time to sell a home and the share of those who say it’s a good time to buy went up 5% from January.

A panel of housing experts surveyed by Zillow and Pulsenomics believes home price growth will pick up again in 2024, hitting a 3.5% annual growth rate every year through 2027, a reassuring prediction for this year’s buyers.

REVIEW OF LAST WEEK

A BIT OF A DOWNER Following Fed chair Powell’s hawkish Congressional testimony, the February jobs report, and the FDIC’s shutdown of Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) to protect insured depositors, stocks tanked big time.

SVB is a very small institution with specialized lending practices, so the shutdown should only be a temporary shock to Wall Street. The $19.8 trillion U.S. banking system remains very well capitalized. 

Powell told Congress the Fed still has more work to do to cool the economy and inflation, but we later got February’s weak 0.2% gain in hourly earnings and rising 3.6% unemployment rate to show that the Fed’s making progress.

The week ended with the Dow down 4.4%, to 31,910, the S&P 500 down 4.5%, to 3,862, and the Nasdaq down 4.7%, to 11,139.

Bond prices overall benefited from a flight to safety, although the UMBS 6.0% slipped 0.71, to $100.31. In Freddie Mac’s Primary Mortgage Market Survey, the national average 30-year fixed mortgage rate edged up again. Remember, mortgage rates can be extremely volatile, so check with your mortgage professional for up-to-the-minute information.  

DID YOU KNOW… CoreLogic reports annual home price growth fell to 5.5% in January, slowing for the ninth straight month. Their chief economist sees “price declines modest, which are projected to top at 3% peak to trough.”

THIS WEEK’S FORECAST

HOME BUILDING, RETAIL SALES, INFLATION… We should see an uptick in builder activity in February, with Housing Starts and Building Permits ahead for the month. Economists expect a slight increase in Retail Sales for February, a slight decrease when you don’t count auto sales. They also see inflation slowing in both the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and the wholesale Producer Price Index (PPI).

FEDERAL RESERVE WATCH

Forecasting Federal Reserve policy changes in coming months. Despite Fed Chair Powell’s hawkish testimony before Congress, the futures market sees only a quarter percent rate hike at the next two FOMC meetings, then no hike in June. Note: In the lower chart, a 100% probability of change is a 100% probability the rate will rise. Current rate is 4.50%-4.75%.

AFTER FOMC MEETING ON: CONSENSUS
Mar 22 4.75%-5.00%
May 3 5.00%-5.25%
Jun 14 5.00%-5.25%

Probability of change from current policy:

AFTER FOMC MEETING ON: CONSENSUS
Mar 22 100.0%
May 3  84.9%
Jun 14  90.8%
Kevin Brierton
Kevin Brierton
Branch Manager
Certified Mortgage Planning Specialist
NMLS# 599873

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