Kevin Brierton: Inside Lending - Week of 2-13-23 - Ron Everingham (All Seasons Properties)

	NATIONAL MARKET UPDATE
	Black Knight reported *purchase loan locks went up 64% from the first to last week of January, the largest jump in five years,* as well as a growing trend of homebuyers paying points upfront to permanently reduce their mortgage rate. The Mortgage Bankers Association saw mortgage applications increase 7.4% last week, noting: “Purchase activity that was put on hold last year…is gradually coming back as rates ease and housing demand remains strong.” Freddie Mac’s chief economist observed that with the recent rate drop for the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage, *“interested homebuyers are easing their way back to the market just in time for the spring homebuying season.”*

NATIONAL MARKET UPDATE

Black Knight reported purchase loan locks went up 64% from the first to last week of January, the largest jump in five years, as well as a growing trend of homebuyers paying points upfront to permanently reduce their mortgage rate.

The Mortgage Bankers Association saw mortgage applications increase 7.4% last week, noting: “Purchase activity that was put on hold last year…is gradually coming back as rates ease and housing demand remains strong.”

Freddie Mac’s chief economist observed that with the recent rate drop for the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage, “interested homebuyers are easing their way back to the market just in time for the spring homebuying season.”

	REVIEW OF LAST WEEK
	*TAKING A BREAK…* Traders paused from their upbeat activities since the start of the year, as stocks fell for the week on disappointing Q4 corporate earnings and economic data, and hawkish comments from the Fed. Chair Powell said the Fed has a significant road ahead to get inflation down to 2%; the Trade Balance revealed a global trade slowdown; and the Treasury Budget reported a $38 billion deficit, versus a $118 billion surplus a year ago. But low initial jobless claims indicated the economy could still see a soft landing and *the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index rose to a 13-month high,* showing Americans are cautiously optimistic. The week ended with the Dow down 0.2%, to 33,869; the S&P 500 down 1.1%, to 4,090; and the Nasdaq down 2.4%, to 11,718. Bonds overall fell sharply, the UMBS 5.5% dropping 1.01, to $100.11. Freddie Mac’s Primary Mortgage Market Survey reported a slight increase in the national average 30-year fixed mortgage rate. Remember, mortgage rates can be extremely volatile, so check with your mortgage professional for up-to-the-minute information. DID YOU KNOW… The NAR reports *the median sale price for single-family existing homes climbed 4% in Q4, a deceleration from Q3’s 8.6% increase*—plus, around 1 in 10 metros across the U.S. saw price decreases.

REVIEW OF LAST WEEK

TAKING A BREAK… Traders paused from their upbeat activities since the start of the year, as stocks fell for the week on disappointing Q4 corporate earnings and economic data, and hawkish comments from the Fed.

Chair Powell said the Fed has a significant road ahead to get inflation down to 2%; the Trade Balance revealed a global trade slowdown; and the Treasury Budget reported a $38 billion deficit, versus a $118 billion surplus a year ago.

But low initial jobless claims indicated the economy could still see a soft landing and the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index rose to a 13-month high, showing Americans are cautiously optimistic.

The week ended with the Dow down 0.2%, to 33,869; the S&P 500 down 1.1%, to 4,090; and the Nasdaq down 2.4%, to 11,718.

Bonds overall fell sharply, the UMBS 5.5% dropping 1.01, to $100.11. Freddie Mac’s Primary Mortgage Market Survey reported a slight increase in the national average 30-year fixed mortgage rate. Remember, mortgage rates can be extremely volatile, so check with your mortgage professional for up-to-the-minute information.

DID YOU KNOW… The NAR reports the median sale price for single-family existing homes climbed 4% in Q4, a deceleration from Q3’s 8.6% increase—plus, around 1 in 10 metros across the U.S. saw price decreases.

	THIS WEEK’S FORECAST
	HOME BUILDING, INFLATION, RETAIL SALES… January *Housing Starts* are expected to be off a tad, but *Building Permits* should be up, a positive sign for future activity. The January *Consumer Price Index (CPI)* is forecast to show a gain in inflation, while the *Producer Price Index (PPI)* is predicted to report the same for wholesale prices. Ending on a good note, January *Retail Sales* are expected up after December’s decline. *U.S. financial markets will be closed next Monday, February 20, in observance of Presidents’ Day/Washington’s Birthday.*

THIS WEEK’S FORECAST

HOME BUILDING, INFLATION, RETAIL SALES… January Housing Starts are expected to be off a tad, but Building Permits should be up, a positive sign for future activity. The January Consumer Price Index (CPI) is forecast to show a gain in inflation, while the Producer Price Index (PPI) is predicted to report the same for wholesale prices. Ending on a good note, January Retail Sales are expected up after December’s decline.

U.S. financial markets will be closed next Monday, February 20, in observance of Presidents’ Day/Washington’s Birthday.

FEDERAL RESERVE WATCH

Forecasting Federal Reserve policy changes in coming months. Fed watchers expect the Fed to keep its foot on the gas, with quarter percent rate hikes in March and May, then put on the brakes in June. Note: In the lower chart a 90.8% probability of change is a 90.8% probability the rate will rise. Current rate is 4.50%-4.75%.