Kevin Brierton: Inside Lending – Week of 3-27-23

NATIONAL MARKET UPDATE

February Existing Home Sales took everyone by surprise, rising for the first time in thirteen months–by 14.5%!–plus, we got the news that the median price fell year-over-year for the first time in 11 years.

New Home Sales also rose in February—up for the third straight month. In addition, inventories have recently made substantial gains, as the supply of completed homes has started to go up rapidly.

An online real estate database reports the median down payment percentage has dropped from 13.6% a year ago to 10% of the purchase price, while the share of cash buyers has climbed to 32.1%.

REVIEW OF LAST WEEK

“WHAT, ME WORRY?” Traders took their cue from Alfred E. Neuman’s trademark motto and sent stock prices north despite another rate hike from the Fed and continuing banking-sector worries.

Yes, the Fed raised rates a quarter percent but made no change to its outlook for a peak rate of 5.1%, indicating nothing more than a possible quarter percent hike. They also called the U.S. banking system “strong and resilient.”

So much for the worries. On the upside, Wall Street liked the rise in home sales and mortgage applications, while initial jobless claims stayed at a low level, showing little change in the good health of the labor market.

The week ended with the Dow UP 1.2%, to 32,238; the S&P 500 UP 1.4%, to 3,971, and the Nasdaq UP 1.7%, to 11,824.

Bond prices overall ended higher as well, the UMBS 5.5% up 0.78, to $101.07. In Freddie Mac’s Primary Mortgage Market Survey, the national average 30-year fixed mortgage rate continued to slide down. Remember, mortgage rates can be extremely volatile, so check with your mortgage professional for up-to-the-minute information.

DID YOU KNOW… Realtor.com reports that the best time to list a home in 2023 will be the week of April 16-22. Based on trends from prior years, sellers can expect higher prices, more buyers, and less time on the market.

THIS WEEK’S FORECAST

PENDING HOME SALES, HOME PRICES, INFLATION… After a January bump, the Pending Home Sales index of signed contracts on existing homes is expected to recede in February. The S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Index is forecast to report price increases declining again in January. PCE Prices, the Fed’s favorite measure, should show inflation continuing to slow.

FEDERAL RESERVE WATCH

Forecasting Federal Reserve policy changes in coming months. The futures market expects the Fed to hold the current rate through the next two meetings, then do a quarter percent rate cut in July. Note: In the lower chart, an 11.3% probability of change is an 88.7% probability the rate will stay the same. Current rate is 4.75%-5.00%.
AFTER FOMC MEETING ON: CONSENSUS
May 3 4.75%-5.00%
Jun 14 4.75%-5.00%
Jul 26 4.50%-4.75%

Probability of change from current policy:

AFTER FOMC MEETING ON: CONSENSUS
May 3 11.3%
Jun 14  24.1%
Jul 26  91.9%
Kevin Brierton
Kevin Brierton
Branch Manager
Certified Mortgage Planning Specialist
NMLS# 599873

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